We tweeted on Sunday that a low pressure system could cross England and Wales on Thursday which in turn would allow uksnow to fall on it’s northern flank. The last couple of days has seen this feature shift north and south repeatedly on each run of varying different models.
What’s it showing now?
3. 06z Tuesday 25th Feb 2020
The GFS, as always is more bullish and should be viewed with a pinch of salt but is included here to show the potential position of the low. I doubt any model has it nailed down correctly here as these systems tend to shift further south at the last minute.
However, I suspect there will be some snow or wintry showers at least, with any accumulations limited to high ground. That is, if the low sticks around.
2. 12z Tuesday 25th Feb 2020
The forecast is still very uncertain for Wednesday evening into Thursday in regards to snow potential. None of the models are the same regarding spread of snow… so what is the most likely option…
The GFS seems to be OTT as does the EC, this is most likely due to the low resolution. UKV and Euro4 are suggesting the low to move in from our west and track into the channel. This still brings a risk of snow on the northern side of the rain band.
It’s a fine line but perhaps snow to hills (200m+) with a wintry mix to lower levels, even to sea level? We’ll see about that. Starting to firm up on some details, bit by bit.
1. Advisory issued
We have issued a risk map. Head over to https://snowwatch.org/status/a/208/ for more details. We may update this blog with model analysis if time permits.