It’s so close now, I can almost smell the turkey. In fact it’s defrosting in the microwave. Yes, that’s where we keep it until Christmas Day… is that normal?!.

The question many meteorologists (professional and amatuer) are asked during the lead up to Christmas is “Will it be a White Christmas?” and of course the answer to that 6 weeks before it always “Your guess is as good as mine right now” but here we are 2 days before Christmas… we have a better, almost concrete idea now.

Christmas Eve

Rain that has moved in from the South West earlier on Tuesday morning will be over Northern England and East Anglia by 5-6am and should duly moving east throughout early morning leaving a fair amount of cloud around with some sunny spells. Showers lingering across the Western England and Wales, these could feature thundery showers and hailstones. In fact the UK Met Office has already issued a thunderstorm warning for Christmas Eve.

Temperatures around 3-10°C.

It’s worth pointing out, as we’re all on the look out for even the smallest amount of snow that there could be snowfall to Northern Pennines, Peak District and Yorkshire Dales, maybe Welsh mountains too as the UKV model shows below.

Christmas Day

It’s looking dry for the vast majority of the country with varying cloud amounts and sunshine. Only a few showers getting into Northern and Western Scotland during the day. Late evening rain and strong winds will arrive in Ireland from the South West. It will be cold enough on high ground for snow. Although there doesn’t seem to be a lot of precipitation around. If this happens then by the Met Office definition it’s officially white. One to watch! We’ll be monitoring this and posting on social media intermittently. You can read more about the definition here.

“A White Christmas is declared if one snowflake is observed falling in the 24 hours of 25th December somewhere in the UK” – UK Met Office

Elsewhere will see sunny spells with some patches of frost and fog early and late. Temperatures ranging from 3-8°C.

Boxing Day

Cold and frosty start but turning more unsettled and milder through Boxing Day with rain and strong winds pushing east thanks to a low pressure system to our West.

Snowfall expected over Scottish Highlands and perhaps Northern Pennines, Peak District and Yorkshire Dales for a time. Temperatures 7-11°C.

That’s how Christmas 2019 is shaping up! As always we’ll monitor the situation and later on Christmas Day provide updates as to whether or not it’s been a White Christmas. The Met Office are normally quite good at getting this information out quickly. We may update this article if the forecast changes… 

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29, founder of Snow Watch. Works 9-5 in Tech, previously marketing, session musician. Interests are weather, music, tech, cycling, photography and TV.